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Mesoscale Discussion 1542 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN MO...FAR NRN AR AND ADJACENT MID-MS
VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 102011Z - 102215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY A SEWD-MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING FROM S-CNTRL
MO.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV HAS GRADUALLY
INTENSIFIED ACROSS A PART OF S-CNTRL MO. ADDITIONAL AGITATED CU IS
NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SE ALONG A WEAKLY
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY EXTENDING TOWARDS THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH
RIVERS. AMDAR DATA INVOF MCI/STL ALONG WITH VWP DATA IN EAX SAMPLED
A BELT OF AROUND 30-35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ARE WEAK...THIS TYPE OF FLOW REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TRANSIENT/WEAK MID-LEVEL ROTATION WHICH WOULD FAVOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ALONG THE FRINGE OF GREATER BUOYANCY. CONSOLIDATION OF
UPDRAFTS COULD YIELD A SEMI-ORGANIZED SEWD-MOVING CLUSTER WITH A
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 08/10/2014
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 38359207 38119126 37428921 37058884 36748895 36358910
35978954 35829018 35939083 36219176 36629253 36959284
37399295 37959291 38299261 38359207
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