ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121626 
SPC MCD 121626 
PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-121830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WV...WRN PA AND FAR WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 121626Z - 121830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH A THREAT OF LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR
MARGINAL HAIL.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS OH
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF SOME COOLING ALOFT. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY HEATING WITH SOME BREAKING OF
THE CLOUDS SPREADING EWD INTO WRN PA AND WV. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL FAVOR FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS AND HELP TO AND MAXIMIZE
LONGEVITY. INCREASING 700 MB FLOW TO AROUND 30 KT AND AMPLE MOISTURE
SHOULD HELP A FEW STORMS PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS...WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

A FEW CELLS MAY ACQUIRE BRIEF ROTATION AT TIMES...BUT OVERALL THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED TOO FAR E FROM THE
INSTABILITY AXIS.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 08/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   37618194 38128249 38398267 39028274 40068222 40978206
            41558192 41838136 42228025 42297969 42147916 41447881
            39457910 38587963 37848047 37508109 37618194 

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