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Mesoscale Discussion 1550 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND NERN ORE / S-CNTRL AND SERN WA / NWRN
ID
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121957Z - 122130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.
DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1007MB LOW INVOF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE TO THE IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE/MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEPARTING MCV OVER FAR NRN ID
AND A CONVECTIVELY-AIDED CLOUD SHIELD OVER CNTRL AND E-CNTRL ORE.
SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S INVOF THE WA/ORE BORDER
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN BETWEEN BOTH CLOUD FEATURES.
AN AGITATED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CNTRL ORE CLOUD SHIELD
AND AN INVERTED-V PROFILE WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER N-CNTRL AND
NERN ORE. STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND GRADUAL STORM-SCALE
AND COLD POOL ORGANIZATION MAY RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS/LINE SEGMENTS
MOVING NWD ACROSS THE DESTABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE DISCUSSION
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 08/12/2014
ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...
LAT...LON 46501691 45941601 45181597 44781701 44592156 45272213
46442177 46952122 46471987 46501691
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