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Mesoscale Discussion 1563 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171920Z - 172045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z.
DISCUSSION...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
FAR SWRN ND IN BOWMAN COUNTY...AS WELL AS IN NRN ND IN RENVILLE
COUNTY NORTH OF MINOT. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD
FRONT WITH ASCENT BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THE TWO
AREAS OF STORMS...WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...BUT SOME INCREASE IN CU HAS BEEN NOTED FROM NEAR DIK TO SW OF
MIB...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY 20-21Z.
CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOTED PER
RECENT MESOANALYSIS. WIND PROFILES ARE RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT
MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY TOO ISOLATED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT
AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FILLS IN BETWEEN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 20-21Z.
..DEAN/WEISS.. 08/17/2014
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
LAT...LON 46160382 47500266 49010186 49000092 48990044 48590020
48150039 47730055 46750087 45990140 46050254 46060357
46160382
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