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Mesoscale Discussion 1565 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND...FAR N-CNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463...
VALID 172339Z - 180045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL ND AND FAR
N-CNTRL SD. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WANING AFTER SUNSET...WITH A NEW
DOWNSTREAM WW NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONGEST STORM WITHIN
WW 463 LOCATED OVER TOWNER/BENSON COUNTIES ND...EXHIBITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. A PRONOUNCED COLD
POOL EXTENDS TO THE S/W OF THIS STORM...INTERSECTING A PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT FARTHER TO THE W. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE PERSISTING
ACROSS S-CNTRL ND NEAR BIS...WITH THE PRIMARY ACCOMPANYING THREAT
BEING STRONG WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THE IMMINENT LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SUGGEST TSTM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS UNLIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH ANY SVR THREAT REMAINING LOCALIZED/MARGINAL.
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT IS ALSO LIKELY TO PRECLUDE
NEW WW ISSUANCE.
..ROGERS.. 08/17/2014
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 48949803 47869850 45899960 45570003 45540103 45810145
46750137 48370111 48990025 49019827 48949803
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