MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...NERN CO...FAR NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182048Z - 182215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIMITED COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT
   SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEB
   PANHANDLE...SERN WY...AND ERN CO...WITHIN A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
   REGIME. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED...STRONG
   HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG PER RECENT
   MESOANALYSIS. MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CELL
   ORGANIZATION. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR SOME RISK OF SEVERE
   HAIL...WHILE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
   RELATIVELY DRY AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE
   STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST AND WW ISSUANCE IS
   CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 08/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39050296 39500422 40360494 41340557 42230601 42920581
               43080474 43180361 43030311 42440250 42010234 41150209
               39710160 39160155 38990213 39050296