ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 252037 
SPC MCD 252037 
COZ000-252230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 252037Z - 252230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO THIS
AFTERNOON.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO WESTERN CO.  WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL CO...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORMING.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NORTHEAST CO REMAINS SLIGHTLY CAPPED...BUT
SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON
DUE TO CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
HELPING TO REINFORCE LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH ENHANCING EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS
THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

..HART/MEAD.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39390575 40390579 40920495 40970316 40290283 38650329
            38630539 39390575 

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