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Mesoscale Discussion 1616 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...SWRN WY...FAR NWRN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 252229Z - 260030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN UT...SWRN WY...AND FAR NWRN CO. SOME SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...RECENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CONTINUAL
INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. TSTM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA
IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J
PER KG/ AND MODERATE SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KT/. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED STAY
BELOW SVR THRESHOLDS AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2014
ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 41011175 42191088 42370948 41400825 38250910 38231256
41011175
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