|
Mesoscale Discussion 1645 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NE...IA...MN...SD...MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311920Z - 312045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...HIGH
WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO EXPECTED INCREASE ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN
KS/WRN IA AND SRN MN INTO THIS EVENING. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 40-50KT
MID-LEVEL WIND MAX SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WILL ACT TO ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM WRN MN TO NRN KS. A
WARM AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AOA 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED
ONGOING CONVECTION...FROM WRN IA TO SRN MN...APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE
STRONGER TROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS MAY POSE A
THREAT FOR HAIL GIVEN ANTECEDENT RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...ACROSS ERN NEB AND NRN KS...OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG
INHIBITION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND
TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH
EVENING. IF MORE DISCRETE STORMS INITIATE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION OVER IA/MN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND REDUCED LCL HEIGHTS IN THESE
AREAS COULD SUPPORT A GREATER TORNADO RISK...PROBABLY WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF STORM INITIATION.
EVOLVING MCS/SQUALL LINE OVER ERN NEB/NRN KS WILL MOST LIKELY CROSS
INTO WRN IA...AND EXTREME NWRN MO...DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
CONTINUING CHANCE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ANY TORNADO
RISK SHOULD LESSEN AS THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS.
..CARBIN/HART.. 08/31/2014
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...
GID...GLD...
LAT...LON 44639605 44879567 45039501 45039420 44789370 43979276
43319286 42709339 41999435 41379479 40989501 40669528
40479548 39929602 39449734 39149868 39179938 39389981
39579986 40029978 40539916 40959870 41489816 41859790
42129771 42549749 43169709 43889678 44639605
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|