ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 312057 SPC MCD 312057 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-312300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AL...NRN GA...WRN NC...ERN TN...ERN KY...CNTRL/SRN WV...WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 312057Z - 312300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED. DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN A BROAD CORRIDOR OF NEWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS OCCASIONALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. A MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE HAS EVEN BEEN INDICATED OVER ERN KY. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SIMILAR ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS TRANSLUCENT MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE HAS PERMITTED MODEST INSOLATION AMIDST A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH AREA VWPS INDICATING 20-30-KT WSWLYS IN THE 1-3-KM LAYER...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AND...WITH LOW LCLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THE RISK FOR A WEAK TORNADO MAY EXIST. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM OCCURRING. ..COHEN/HART.. 08/31/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX... HUN... LAT...LON 34768675 37038436 38508216 38948002 37867930 36698026 35368236 34478504 34768675 NNNN