ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011950 COR
SPC MCD 011950 COR
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-012115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WY...SD...NE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 011950Z - 012115Z

CORRECTED AREAS AFFECTED TO WY...SD...NE

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL BUT A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN LEFT-EXIT REGION OF
MID/UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
EASTERN WY ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN NEB AND SRN/CNTRL SD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT IN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING
HAS FOSTERED A STEEPENING OF DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTED
TO MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE BACKGROUND ASCENT
AND WEAK INHIBITION...WIDELY SCATTERED MULTICELL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND SFC T/TD SPREADS NEARING 30F IN SOME AREAS. SMALL HAIL
ALSO SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS. STORM
ORGANIZATION AND LIMITED SEVERE RISK PRECLUDES WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
THIS AREA.

..CARBIN/HART.. 09/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42120302 42720495 43620456 44110413 45219960 44889843
            43459859 42669978 42120302 

NNNN