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Mesoscale Discussion 1660
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0646 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS AND ADJACENT NRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486...

   VALID 012346Z - 020115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR AT LEAST SOME
   INCREASE IN TORNADIC POTENTIAL...GENERALLY DURING THE 00-02Z TIME
   FRAME...NEAR/NORTH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
   AREA.

   DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ALONG A
   SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   FROM PRIOR CONVECTION.  THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE
   LOW NEAR MEDICINE LODGE KS...NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
   BORDER...INTO THE JOPLIN MO AREA.  IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY
   LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE BENEATH 40 KT WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 500
   MB...THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF INTENSIFYING
   SUPERCELLS...BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
   ADVECTION CONTRIBUTES TO UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH LATER THIS
   EVENING.

   ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR RATHER MODEST IN STRENGTH...
   THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO ENLARGE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE 00-02Z
   TIME FRAME...AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
   ATOP THE DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST A
   SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR TORNADIC
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE DISCRETE STORMS PROPAGATING ALONG THE
   AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY.

   ..KERR.. 09/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37759718 37699580 37559469 36919445 36789593 36869754
               37309828 37649782 37759718 

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Page last modified: September 02, 2014
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