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Mesoscale Discussion 1661
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0845 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NERN OK...AND SERN KS INTO SWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486...487...

   VALID 020145Z - 020315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   486...487...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
   LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
   CONVECTIVE HAZARDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  A NEW SEVERE WEATHER
   WATCH...OR EXTENSION IN TIME OF WW 486...PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED BY
   03Z.

   DISCUSSION...A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF
   STORMS/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN UNDERWAY DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
   SO.  THIS APPEARS GENERALLY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND WARM
   ADVECTION...BASED ROUGHLY AROUND 850 MB.  FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD
   STILL INCREASE SOME WITH MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET /30-35 KT AT 850 MB/ THROUGH THE 03-05Z TIME
   FRAME...LIKELY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT
   NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA...BETWEEN BARTLESVILLE AND
   JOPLIN.  AIDED BY INFLOW OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
   AIR...WITH SIZABLE CAPE BENEATH LINGERING MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL BUT INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR.  HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER
   OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30 KT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SURFACE GUSTS
   AT LEAST APPROACHING...IF NOT EXCEEDING...SEVERE LIMITS.

   ..KERR.. 09/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37849524 37849324 36869295 36659496 36379654 36169748
               36399803 37069754 37849524 

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Page last modified: September 02, 2014
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