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Mesoscale Discussion 1674
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1674
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1041 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491...

   VALID 040341Z - 040500Z

   CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN PART
   OF WW 491 FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE
   EDGE OF WW 491 TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   MORE ISOLATED. FOR THIS REASON...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENT IN DUNN...CHIPPEWA AND
   TAYLOR COUNTIES WI IS LOCATED ALONG A SFC PRESSURE PERTURBATION AND
   APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MLCAPE IN THE SRN PART OF WW 491 IS ESTIMATED
   TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOWING ABOUT 40
   KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD. A TURN MORE
   TO THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE AS THE CELL PROPAGATION FAVORS THE MORE
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEAR THE MS RIVER. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY
   SFC-BASED...A CAP IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   MAKING THE STORMS ELEVATED. THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH A SLOW DECREASE
   IN INSTABILITY SHOULD MAKE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE LINE MORE MARGINAL WITH TIME.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45539013 44869151 44679204 43839217 43159172 43329022
               44178926 45539013 

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Page last modified: September 04, 2014
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