MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162129Z - 162330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CAROLINAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT
   BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE IN THE BASE OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CROSSING THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS. DCVA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ENCOURAGED EARLIER
   STORM DEVELOPMENT IN PROXIMITY TO A SFC FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
   OUTER BANKS TO WRN NC TO NRN GA. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD INSOLATION AMIDST MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. AND...WITH 20-25 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...A FEW SUSTAINED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL
   CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ESEWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
   SVR HAIL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONGER
   BUOYANCY SHOULD PRECLUDE GREATER SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 09/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   33517967 33408116 34168221 34878219 35948063 35597902
               34987812 34497829 33517967