ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 202255 
SPC MCD 202255 
MNZ000-NDZ000-210030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 202255Z - 210030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF INSOLATION-ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES IS DRIVING MARGINAL BUOYANCY IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS IS ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING SEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVX VWP SAMPLES 30-40 KT
OF NWLY FLOW IN THE 1-4-KM LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SUSTAINED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR.
A MARGINALLY SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL. THE RISK FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
THE PBL EXPERIENCES AN INCREASE IN STATIC STABILITY.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   48939797 48939711 47939648 46959588 46689703 47779802
            48659832 48939797 

NNNN