MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NM...CO...TX...OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509...

   VALID 292054Z - 292230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
   SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO
   SOUTHEAST CO.

   DISCUSSION...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN CO AS A
   POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NM AND
   THE CO FRONT RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND EXPECT THESE TRENDS
   TO CONTINUE AS THE STRONG DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS ACROSS ROCKIES
   THROUGH THE EVENING.

   MASS RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS
   ALREADY RESULTED IN A STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER NM/CO
   WHERE SURFACE GUSTS AWAY FROM DEEP CONVECTION WERE ALREADY
   APPROACHING 40KT. EXPECT DEVELOPING BANDS/LINES OF STORMS WILL HAVE
   THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 50KT AS CONVECTIVE
   OVERTURNING ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO REACH THE SURFACE.
   MORE DISCRETE/CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED BUT SHEAR
   AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL WITH
   STORMS OF THIS CHARACTER.

   ..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33470491 33450622 35950555 38470491 38470351 38470212
               35950287 33450362 33470491