ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 022151 SPC MCD 022151 TXZ000-OKZ000-022245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...N/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... VALID 022151Z - 022245Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...LINE OF SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS N TX WITH THE SVR THREAT PERSISTING. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH THIS LINE IS SVR WINDS...SOME POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 65 KT. FARTHER S...UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONGOING MULTI-CELLULAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH A RESULTANT SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE METROPLEX HAVE MEASURED WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 60 KT AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS PRESSURE FALLS GREATER THAN 2 MB IN 2 HOURS AHEAD OF THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...SLIGHT BACKING IN THE WINDS WAS NOTED AT CRS...LNC AND TRL. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST SOME LARGER-SCALE ORGANIZATION ONGOING WITH THIS LINE. OVERALL DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED NEAR 2000 J PER KG. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LINE TO CONTINUE EWD WITH PERHAPS SOME ACCELERATION. AS SUCH...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT POSSIBLE. FARTHER S /ACROSS CNTRL TX/...SWLY SURFACE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK CONVERGE ALONG COLD FRONT WITH TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MULTI-CELLULAR. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS WAS NOTED AT GTO AND HLR. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LINE TO INCREASE WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE CONNECTED TO THE ACTIVITY IN N TX. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE ONGOING MULTI-CELL STORMS WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE LINE CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES EWD. ..MOSIER.. 10/02/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30729923 33989727 33959449 30729654 30729923 NNNN