ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 072054 
SPC MCD 072054 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-072230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN OHIO...WRN WEST
VIRGINIA...CNTRL/ERN KENTUCKY...SERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...

VALID 072054Z - 072230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS INCLUDING TORNADOES CONTINUES
ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 523...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE
SHORT-TERM ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN OHIO...FAR WRN WV...AND ERN KY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS INCLUDING QLCS SEGMENTS
AND SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD/ESEWD NEAR AND S OF THE OHIO
RIVER. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A RISK FOR DMGG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES AS IT CROSSES ERN KY
INTO WRN WV. NARROW/ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY CORES BUILDING NWD INTO
THE LOWER SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY IN OHIO SUGGEST SOME DESTABILIZATION
ONGOING INTO S-CNTRL/SERN OH...WHERE THE RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES
MAY EXIST IN A STRONGLY-VERTICALLY-SHEARED/LOW-BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT.
THE JKL VWP INDICATES VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTING 0-1-KM
SRH IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG/CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MINIMAL BUOYANCY...THIS HODOGRAPH
AND THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY NOTABLY BOLSTER THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN KY.

THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BACKBUILD TOWARD SRN
INDIANA ALONG A CONVERGENCE-AXIS-MANIFESTED CU LINE EXTENDING W/E
THROUGH THE LOUISVILLE AREA. AND...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ENHANCING BUOYANCY...SOME SVR-TSTM RISK MAY ENSUE TO THE W OF THE
ONGOING STRONGEST STORMS INTO CNTRL KY/SRN INDIANA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

..COHEN.. 10/07/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   36678597 38768667 39988156 37878088 36678597 

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