ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090403 
SPC MCD 090403 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT WED OCT 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...WRN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 090403Z - 090530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE KS
EXTENDING SEWD INTO CNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY THREAT
THAT CAN DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING
THAT A VORTICITY MAX IS EVIDENT IN THE FLOW OVER SERN KS. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM
NE KS SEWD INTO CNTRL MO. RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN
KS AND SWRN MO WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESTIMATED IN THE 7.0 TO
7.5 C/KM RANGE. AS CONVECTION STRENGTHENS ON THE NERN EDGE OF THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST
OVER NE KS AND NW MO WHERE INSTABILITY IS STRONGER AND CELLS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY 05Z AS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. ALTHOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY ROTATE...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 10/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   37469204 38679503 39119617 39359643 39659644 39939610
            40169549 40149498 40079441 39539290 38999195 38279065
            37629101 37469204 

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