ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111857 
SPC MCD 111857 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-112100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA/GA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 111857Z - 112100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
DEVELOP AMID SCATTERED STORMS FORMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND CG LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG REMNANT CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN GA TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER NRN NC. WARM
SECTOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 80S...LIKELY
YIELDING MODEST BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AMID POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PERVASIVE W/SWLY SURFACE WINDS AND NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO
STRONGER SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF 35-45 KT MID-LEVEL
WINDS PER GSP/FCX VWP DATA MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WITH TIME...MERGING OF CELLS INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS MIGHT YIELD ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AMID STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 10/11/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   33918382 35088200 35788061 36307876 36227762 35987744
            35377785 34917862 33988024 33468159 33248246 33298353
            33318420 33558450 33918382 

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