ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 130446 
SPC MCD 130446 
ALZ000-MSZ000-130615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL MS AND NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 130446Z - 130615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROBUST SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE SRN STREAM MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
TONIGHT WHICH APPEARS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THIS REGION.  AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS
BEEN OBSERVED BY THE KDGX VAD FROM 00Z THROUGH PRESENT TIME AS WINDS
HAVE STRENGTHENED FROM 30 TO 50 KT AROUND 4KM AGL.  RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
LARGE CONVECTIVE SHIELD OVER NRN MS AND INCLUDING ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF AL AND TN.  04Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER CNTRL MS TO THE INFLOW
SIDE OF THE UPDRAFTS ON THE S-SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEG F.  MODIFYING THE 00Z
JAN RAOB SUGGESTS AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT.  AS SUCH...THE
POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME SUPERCELLS IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.  WHILE NOT LIKELY AT PRESENT TIME...IF FURTHER
STORM INTENSIFICATION BECOMES APPARENT...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
CONSIDERED.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/13/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34518803 34308795 33828812 33298976 33169066 33249088
            33589104 34638869 34518803 

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