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Mesoscale Discussion 1888 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FL PANHANDLE...ERN AL...WRN GA AND SERN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 543...
VALID 140707Z - 140830Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 543 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SPORADIC INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AS WELL AS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS FROM THE WRN
AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN AL...WRN GA AND SERN
TN.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING AN EXPANSIVE SQUALL LINE PERSISTS
FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH ERN AL...NWRN GA AND SERN TN.
THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KT WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS
WITHIN THE LINE MOVE RAPIDLY NWD. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 J/KG OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
TO 500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH INTO NRN GA AND SERN TN. HOWEVER...SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 70 OVER NRN GA AS GULF
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NWD ALONG A STRONG SLY LLJ. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COASTAL STATES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER JET
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH BASE.
DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND A
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES IN THE LINE
INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES.
SOME INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY/ORGANIZATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN
OBSERVED OVER EXTREME ECNTRL AL...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
ANOTHER WW MIGHT BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN GA.
..DIAL.. 10/14/2014
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 30348600 31878547 33428550 34398529 35628449 35408402
33788378 32588381 30258485 30348600
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