ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141022 
SPC MCD 141022 
SCZ000-GAZ000-141145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1889
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH WRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 141022Z - 141145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF SPORADIC INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
WIND AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF ERN GA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SC THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL
APPROACH THE ERN BORDER OF WW 543 BY 11Z...AND EXISTING WW CAN BE
EXTENDED FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
DOWNSTREAM TO INCLUDE EXTREME ERN GA INTO SC.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS FROM NCNTRL GA SWWD THROUGH SWRN GA
CONTINUES EAST AT 25-35 KT WHILE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE
MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEWPOINTS
HAS ADVECTED THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY
RESULTING IN 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE WELL INTO SC. LLJ HAS BEEN
STRENGTHENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS IT DEVELOPS EWD AND NEWD
THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH MS AND WRN TN. VWP DATA FROM WARNER ROBINS
SAMPLED THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE LLJ WITH 50 KT INDICATED JUST BELOW
1 KM. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE INTERACTING WITH STRONG LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT OCCASIONAL ORGANIZATION INCLUDING LEWP AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THIS MORNING.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   32178244 33628285 34598292 35068260 34758172 33868112
            32588109 32178244 

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