ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032143 
SPC MCD 032143 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-032345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CST MON NOV 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NM...WRN TX / TX PANHANDLE...AND
WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 032143Z - 032345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST
AND/OR LARGE HAIL REPORT.

DISCUSSION...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND WRN TX HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEREFORE...DESPITE MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG HAVE BEEN REALIZED PER
MESO-ANALYSIS DATA. 

WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KT WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION /E.G. SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES/ WITH ANY OF THE MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP. CONSIDERING THIS POTENTIAL...AND THE
POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING DUE TO SOME GREATER
INSOLATION...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

..PICCA/MOSIER/MEAD.. 11/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31380584 31470583 32560586 33830446 36230155 36720045
            36969931 36889837 36479826 35699861 34139996 32740142
            32050208 31550263 30760414 30540506 31380584 

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