ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 062017 
SPC MCD 062017 
VAZ000-NCZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CST THU NOV 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA / FAR SRN MD / NERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 062017Z - 062145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUALLY
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH STRETCHED FROM SURRY COUNTY TO
BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SERN VA AS OF 20Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
BE OCCURRING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE AND ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WITH TIME...EXPECT THIS
CONVECTIVE BAND TO EXPAND SWWD AND NEWD IN AREAL EXTENT WHILE BODILY
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS OFFSET INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH RAP-BASED MLCAPE ESTIMATES OF ONLY 100-400
J/KG. WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DIURNAL-HEATING CYCLE...INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...PROHIBITING ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
NONETHELESS...CURRENT VAD DATA FROM WAKEFIELD VA INDICATE A STRONG
SWLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...TRANSIENT BOWING AND/OR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

..MEAD.. 11/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   36117833 36647778 37017731 37357663 37447611 37337585
            36837565 36397580 36147603 35967688 35867759 35777798
            35907829 36117833 

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