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Mesoscale Discussion 1916 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SERN MS AND FAR SWRN AL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 551...
VALID 170821Z - 171015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 551 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT AND A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PERSIST
ACROSS THE VALID PORTION OF WW 551...FROM FAR SERN LA THROUGH FAR
SERN MS INTO ADJACENT SWRN AL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR AN
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. COUNTIES AND PARISHES WEST OF THE FRONT CAN
CONTINUE TO BE REMOVED FROM THIS WATCH WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MARKING THE ERN EXTENT OF A STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.
DISCUSSION...07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
FALLS /3-4 MB PER 2 HRS/ LOCATED IN NWRN GA...WITH PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
LOW TRACKING NEWD FROM ITS 06Z MEI POSITION TO NOW NEAR TCL.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE...THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE NNE-SSW ORIENTED BROKEN BAND OF
STORMS EXTENDING FROM SWRN AL TO FAR SERN LA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.
THE PARAMETER SPACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN A
LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING
FROM WEST-EAST. THIS TREND HAS BEEN NOTED ON OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES...WHILE RECENT MOB VAD SHOWED STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 400 M2/S2 AND SFC-1 KM SHEAR
NEAR 40 KT/ GIVEN LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH LOWER LCLS AS HIGHER-THETAE AIR ADVANCES
INLAND. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE OBSERVATION AT ASD AND THE SLIDELL
LA VAD SHOWED WLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL INDICATING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE DECREASE IN THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 11/17/2014
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 28719097 29968977 30948890 31618818 31618803 31188793
30238785 29118852 28598893 28478929 28719097
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