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Mesoscale Discussion 1922 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL FL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 556...
VALID 172010Z - 172115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 556 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND ONE OR
TWO TORNADOES AS IT PROGRESSES E/SE.
DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SQUALL LINE ON AN
MGF-VDF-LEE LINE...CONTINUING TO MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CONTINUES...AS FAVORABLE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY /E.G SBCAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J PER KG/ AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE
PRESENT. DESPITE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME AND WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES UPWARDS OF 40 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. INDEED...LATEST KTBW DATA INDICATE SEVERAL
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ASSOCIATED AREAS OF WEAK ROTATION.
THEREFORE...CONSIDERING THE LOW LCLS AND PRESENCE OF THESE BOWING
SEGMENTS...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES CONTINUES.
..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 11/17/2014
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 26998333 27458314 29148153 29108094 27018141 26998333
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