ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 251913 SPC MCD 251913 FLZ000-252115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 251913Z - 252115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL. A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IF STORMS STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE NEAR TAMPA AND VICINITY. DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF A W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM JUST N OF TPA...TO MCO...TO TTS ACROSS CNTRL FL. THESE STORMS POSE A VERY LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. ALONG AND S OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY STORMS FORMING S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH 0-1KM SHEAR WEAKER AT 10-20KT...THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LIMITED. SEMI-LINEAR CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS A SFC LOW FORMS IN THE SAME AREA....AND THESE STORMS ARE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE W-CNTRL FL COAST. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL FL. ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 28238283 28468248 28398196 27528127 27098170 27238263 27858291 28238283 NNNN