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Mesoscale Discussion 1966 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CST FRI DEC 05 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF FAR NERN LA THROUGH CENTRAL-NERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 060018Z - 060215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MS. GIVEN THE COVERAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND OVERALL DURATION OF THE
THREAT REMAINING SHORT /THROUGH 02-03Z/...A WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME INCREASE IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM FAR NERN LA INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN
MS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE
PER SURFACE AND STREAMLINE ANALYSES. THESE STORMS WERE ALSO
JUXTAPOSED WITHIN THE NERN EXTENT OF GREATER INSTABILITY /THOUGH
MLCAPE IN THIS REGION RANGED BETWEEN 250-500 J/KG/...AND WITHIN A
ZONE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE AR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA. HOWEVER...
FALLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SBCINH AND
THE EXISTENCE OF A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EWD EXTENT INTO ERN
MS/NWRN AL SUGGEST A LIMITED THREAT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION FROM FAR NERN LA INTO CENTRAL
MS FOR A SMALL POTENTIAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...POOR
LOW-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 00Z JAN SOUNDING SUGGEST UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN WEAK...FURTHER LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 12/06/2014
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32369170 33809048 34218962 34038887 32998947 32219088
32169121 32369170
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