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Mesoscale Discussion 424 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96...
VALID 230712Z - 230915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING SEWD
ACROSS WW AREA. BULK OF SVR THREAT WILL BE S OF MWL-CRS LINE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS STILL PSBL. BARRING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE/COLD-POOL TRENDS TO THE CONTRARY...ADDITIONAL
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
DISCUSSION...BKN BAND OF MOSTLY NON-SVR TSTMS WAS EVIDENT AT 7Z
ACROSS COLLIN/DENTON/WISE COUNTIES THEN SWWD TO EASTLAND COUNTY.
ONE SVR/LEADING SUPERCELL WAS STILL EVIDENT MOVING INTO NERN ERATH
COUNTY. MINOR WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN STEPHENS COUNTY AT 555Z
WITH THIS STORM...AND SVR HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE GRADUALLY FROM
SFC UPWARD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC SFC COOLING...COMBINATION
OF PRECIP LOADING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO PUNCH AN OCNL STG-SVR GUST THROUGH THAT LAYER TO SFC. THIS
STABILIZATION...ALONG WITH EXPECTED VEERING/WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ABOVE SFC FROM ABOUT 09Z ONWARD...INDICATE GEN LESSENING OF SVR
POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLANAR PLOT OF VWP
WINDS AT 850 MB SHOWS CONFLUENT/SWLY/35-KT LLJ OVER THIS AREA WITH
SRN END OF MCS CURRENTLY CROSSING CONFLUENCE AXIS...AND ALL FLOW AT
AT THAT LEVEL VEERING WITH TIME DURING PAST HOUR. EVEN THOUGH
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED...STORM-SCALE PROCESSES AND FORCED
ASCENT OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW TRAJECTORIES MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN
SVR POTENTIAL ON AT LEAST ISOLATED BASIS FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS.
..EDWARDS.. 04/23/2015
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
LAT...LON 32389884 32839845 32429788 32099680 31449694 31209745
31659822 32389884
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