MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KS...CNTRL OK...FAR N-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 101733Z - 102000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING FROM PARTS
   OF S-CNTRL KS SWD TO FAR N-CNTRL TX...INCLUDING CNTRL OK. THE
   ISSUANCE OF A WW IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...LYING FROM NEAR WICHITA TO FORT SILL TO N OF
   ABILENE. A CORRIDOR OF INSOLATION/DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT IS ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN. THE ERN
   EXTENT OF RELATED DESTABILIZATION IS DEMARCATED BY CONVECTIVELY
   PROCESSED AIR FROM AN EARLIER MCS NOW TRAVERSING THE OZARKS. VIS
   IMAGERY AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATE ISOLATED INCIPIENT CONVECTION ALONG
   THE FRONT NEAR BLAINE/CANADIAN COUNTIES IN OK AND S OF WICHITA.
   HOWEVER...VWPS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT-RELATIVE NORMAL COMPONENT OF
   THE CLOUD-LAYER FLOW IS BEING SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY THE SURGING
   NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS A TENDENCY FOR THE FRONT TO
   UNDERCUT INITIAL UPDRAFTS...AND IT MAY TAKE MORE DIURNAL HEATING
   AND/OR CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS FOR SUSTAINED SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO
   MATERIALIZE. OF GREATER CONCERN IS CONVECTION DEVELOPING NNEWD INTO
   S-CNTRL OK ACROSS THE RED RIVER WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD ENCOUNTER GREATER DURATION OF INGESTION OF SFC-BASED
   PARCELS...AND IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY RICHER MOISTURE STREAMING NWD
   FROM TX /SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S/.

   THE PRESENCE OF 50-65 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. SVR HAIL
   WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS OR
   PERHAPS A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SRH
   /AROUND 200 M2 PER S2/ SAMPLED BY THE TLX VWP.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33599879 34789825 36399762 37839709 37719664 35839651
               34109704 33219824 33599879