MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0715
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND OUTER BANKS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193...

   VALID 212056Z - 212200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WILL POSE AN ISOLD WIND
   DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF MAXIMIZED PRESSURE
   FALLS /AOB 3 MB PER 2 HOURS/ OVER FAR NERN NC IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A
   1006 MB SURFACE LOW.  A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH SEMI-DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS WITH ACCOMPANYING CYCLIC MESOCYCLONES WILL POSE A WIND
   DAMAGE RISK AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES EWD.  RICH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 70-72 RANGE NEAR THE
   COAST COUPLED WITH 200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR
   AN ISOLD TORNADO BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES OFF THE COAST
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..SMITH.. 05/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36687601 35337712 34147825 33817758 34887510 36687465
               36687601