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Mesoscale Discussion 777 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO TO NORTHWEST MS
AND FAR WESTERN TN/KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215...217...
VALID 260152Z - 260315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 215...217...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND FAR
SOUTHERN MO INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND EVENTUALLY
FAR WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS THROUGH LATE EVENING. TORNADO WATCHES
215 AND 217 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH COULD BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE NEARBY MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...A BOWING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AS OF 830 PM
CDT...INCLUDING MULTIPLE NORTHWEST PERIPHERAL EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD
CIRCULATIONS AND A MODERATELY STRONG REAR-INFLOW JET/POSSIBLE MCV
PER FORT SMITH WSR-88D VWP DATA. EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
LITTLE ROCK/SPRINGFIELD MO SAMPLED A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND REGIONAL SURFACE/WSR-88 VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT
SQUALL-LINE PRECEDING CONVERGENCE HAS LIKELY INCREASED WITH
MOIST/UNSTABLE NEAR-SURFACE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VIA MODESTLY
BACKING/STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
AGL. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE
CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO RISK WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MO/EASTERN AR AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHWEST MS...WESTERN
KY/TN...SOUTHERN IL.
..GUYER.. 05/26/2015
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36409413 37219381 37869282 37959010 37628923 36828884
35038941 33979043 33399195 33779276 34769240 35559269
36149363 36409413
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