|
Mesoscale Discussion 943 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MO AND WRN/CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081932Z - 082130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NERN MO
AND WRN IL WILL POSE MAINLY AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 1930Z DEPICTS A SFC
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NRN MO INTO WRN/CNTRL IL...MOST LIKELY A
CONFLUENCE LINE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE
FORMED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY INCREASED
IN INTENSITY. CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S BEHIND A SHALLOW COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OVER THE MCD AREA
EARLIER. ENHANCED MID TO UPPER FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-45 KT. THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT MAINLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW
AT THIS TIME.
..GLEASON/HART.. 06/08/2015
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40209225 40379156 40609073 40919004 41038958 40738898
40128887 39279015 38969159 39269228 40209225
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|