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Mesoscale Discussion 1054 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MT...NERN WY...WRN SD...NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307...308...
VALID 180044Z - 180145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
307...308...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A HAIL AND SVR WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
ISOLATED ORGANIZED TSTMS WITHIN WATCHES 307 AND 308. AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT MAY ALSO PERSIST S OF THESE WATCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED SVR STORMS STRETCHING FROM
SERN MT SWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS SAMPLED A STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILE COUPLED
WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS...YIELDING AN AXIS OF 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE
ACROSS ERN WY NOSING INTO SERN MT. DESPITE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT...ISOLATED SVR THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HRS AS A MODEST INCREASE IN THE LLJ /TO 15-20 KT/ OCCURS
ACROSS WRN NEB/SD...AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS INTO THE LATE EVENING.
UPSCALE GROWTH IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN MT INTO NWRN SD AS
INTERACTIONS WITH NEIGHBORING CELLS OCCUR AND TSTMS TRACK SWD ALONG
THE INSTABILITY AXIS...IN WHICH CASE A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT
COULD EVOLVE.
MEANWHILE...A TSTM CLUSTER ORIGINATING FROM A LEFT SPLIT OUT OF SERN
WY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NEWD ACROSS THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE...WITH
REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL RECEIVED WITHIN THE PAST HR. AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR THE BLACK HILLS OF SD. SVR THREAT
ACROSS THESE AREAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS.
..ROGERS/HART.. 06/18/2015
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 44120138 42220191 41720369 42820445 44480532 45390623
45810743 46080727 46250596 46050444 45270208 44120138
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