MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...

   VALID 021649Z - 021745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI FOR SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS 55-70 MPH WHICH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MULTIPLE SWATHS
   OF WIND DAMAGE.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN EFFECTIVE
   WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW DRAPED FROM THE TRAILING PORTION OF STRONG STORMS
   OVER LAKE HURON WESTWARD INTO NRN LOWER MI.  THE AIRMASS INVOF THE
   BOUNDARY AND TO THE S HAS DESTABILIZED MARKEDLY THE PAST FEW HOURS
   WITH AN INFLUX OF MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND HEATING RESULTING IN
   UPPER 70S TEMPS.  THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW /50 KT AT 2-3
   KM AGL/ AT KAPX PRIOR TO QLCS PASSAGE WILL LEND SUPPORT FOR MOMENTUM
   TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
   SUFFICIENTLY.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWING SEGMENTS DURING THE PAST
   30-60 MINUTES IS YIELDING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE
   WIND DAMAGE AND SWATHS OF 55-70 MPH WIND GUSTS APPEAR PROBABLE PRIOR
   TO THE QLCS MOVING OFF THE LAKE HURON COAST.

   ..SMITH.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   45368467 45348364 44338327 43978409 44058527 45368467