MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL AND ERN OK/N TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 540...

   VALID 170658Z - 170900Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 540 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WELL-ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 540 EARLY THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY
   EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL AND WRN OK/N TX ATTM...THROUGH A
   MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  LATEST AREA VWP DATA SHOWS
   STRONG -- BUT NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL -- SSWLY FLOW ALOFT...VEERING
   WITH HEIGHT ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID
   TROPOSPHERE.  GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN WIND ROUGHLY
   ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINE...OVERALL DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED.  GREATEST RISK -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
   SMALL/BRIEF TORNADOES -- WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST ALONG THE NRN ARC OF
   ANY BOWING SEGMENTS...WHERE SSWLY MEAN WIND WOULD YIELD AN
   ORIENTATION MORE ACROSS THE CONVECTIVE LINE.

   WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO EXIT/PERSIST E OF THE EXISTING WW IN THE
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS...NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN OK
   AND POSSIBLY FAR SRN KS AREAS.

   ..GOSS.. 11/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   38249743 37289660 35949514 33949531 33649667 33389892
               35139832 35719793 37249817 38529823 38249743