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Mesoscale Discussion 1963 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0435 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542...
VALID 171035Z - 171230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LINE OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD
ACROSS SERN KS/ERN OK.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS CROSSING ERN OK AND ADJACENT SERN KS ATTM...WITH THE LINE
MAINTAINING INTENSITY AND INCLUDING SEVERAL EMBEDDED BOWING
STRUCTURES.
WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS INTO SWRN MO APPEARS MORE STABLE --
SUGGESTING THAT DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL DECREASE WITH TIME ALONG NRN
PORTIONS OF THE LINE...A MORE FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
EXISTS WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS AR. AS SUCH...THE CONVECTIVE LINE
APPEARS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY -- INCLUDING ASSOCIATED/LOCAL
DAMAGING WIND RISK -- AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS ERN OK AND EVENTUALLY
INTO WRN AR. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A NEW WW INTO WRN AR.
..GOSS.. 11/17/2015
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 36729583 36829493 35929324 34069350 33789416 33819541
34019641 36729583
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