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Mesoscale Discussion 210 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MS AND
SOUTHWEST TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...
VALID 140457Z - 140630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 43 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH 0530-07Z WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST TN TO NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MS. THEREAFTER...THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD UNDERGO FURTHER DIMINISHING
TREND.
DISCUSSION...AREA VWP DATA ACROSS MS REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER VWP AT JACKSON
AND COLUMBUS MS FAVORING STORM ROTATION. WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT INTO SOUTHWEST TN...THE RELATIVE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO WEST-CENTRAL MS WHERE MUCAPE IS THE STRONGEST /300-800 J
PER KG PER RAP ANALYSIS/. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
COMPACT MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW INTO NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN WILL
MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS.
..PETERS.. 03/14/2016
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32579141 33469081 33939021 34448974 35238959 35888933
35668903 34198926 33308945 32818999 32509051 32489073
32579141
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