MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SERN CO...FAR
   ERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 151938Z - 152145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SVR MODES IS
   INCREASING...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED PRIOR TO
   21Z.

   DISCUSSION...A DRYLINE IS SHARPENING FROM SERN CO SWD ALONG THE W
   TX/ERN NM BORDER. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
   THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EMERGING OVER THE SRN
   ROCKIES WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED DRYLINE SOLENOIDS TO
   FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
   20-22Z TIME FRAME. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE E OF THE DRYLINE
   SURMOUNTED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.8 C/KM SAMPLED BY THE 18Z
   AMA RAOB WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING
   YIELDING ROBUST CONVECTION. INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO 40-50
   KT ORIENTED WITH AN ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL ALONG WITH SVR WIND
   GUSTS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH -- ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNSET -- WILL
   SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS WELL -- LASTING INTO THE EVENING
   DESPITE THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS CONVECTION SPREADS
   EWD/NEWD.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 04/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35270302 36970304 38080235 38040083 36780033 35120049
               34640191 35270302