MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0852 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181...

   VALID 180152Z - 180245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A
   SUPERCELL COMPLEX MOVING SWD JUST E OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...AND A
   NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL OVER JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES.

   DISCUSSION...A LARGE SUPERCELL COMPLEX WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SWD ACROSS WEBB COUNTY
   INTO ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES...AND REMAINS POSITIONED WITHIN AN
   AXIS OF 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. A NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL OVER
   JIM HOGG/BROOKS COUNTY HAS ALSO SHOWN A PERSISTENT HAIL CORE AND
   PRODUCED MULTIPLE LEFT SPLITS MERGING INTO THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEX TO THE N.

   00Z RAOBS FROM BRO AND CRP INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT
   ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING THIS
   SHOULD BE REINFORCED IN VICINITY OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS.
   ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED MORE RECENTLY IN
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
   WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT
   FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   ..ROGERS.. 05/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26899794 26099819 26269883 26779937 27449961 27749951
               27779871 27669814 26899794