MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE ORE...CNTRL ID...NW MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238...

   VALID 082348Z - 090045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
   MORE PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 238.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT -- ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WRN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW --
   WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...RESULTING IN THE PERSISTENCE OF
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
   INSTABILITY -- I.E. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
   -- ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WRN
   PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WHERE THE FRONT HAS MOVED
   THROUGH...RESULTING IN WLY SURFACE WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. 

   RECENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN
   STORM STRENGTH BUT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR THE
   WA/ORE/ID BORDER INTERSECTION AND STORMS IN CLEARWATER COUNTY ID ARE
   SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION. 

   OVERALL...CONTINUED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND THE STRONGLY
   SHEARED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED
   STORMS.

   ..MOSIER.. 06/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

   LAT...LON   44812067 48841525 48851132 44811697 44812067