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Mesoscale Discussion 861 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ND...NORTHWEST MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...
VALID 100759Z - 100900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 10Z
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY CONFINED SWATH OF NORTHEAST ND TO A TIER OF
NORTHWEST MN COUNTIES. A MUCH MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR MASS TO THE EAST
IN NORTHERN MN SHOULD YIELD A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENING RISK TOWARDS
SUNRISE.
DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE ALONG THE PORTION
OF THE QLCS /CENTERED ON NELSON COUNTY ND AS OF 0750Z/ THAT
ACCELERATED IN FORWARD SPEED TO 45-50 KT. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION
SUGGESTS THIS WILL REACH THE GRAND FORKS AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. EAST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...A ROBUST SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN WITHIN A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE EMANATING FROM
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. EXPECTATION IS FOR THE QLCS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THIS INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR
MASS TO THE EAST. AS SUCH...A NEW WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..GRAMS.. 06/10/2016
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
LAT...LON 48519800 48559736 48519680 48369656 47909646 47489652
47319696 47289758 47379799 47649800 48029789 48519800
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