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Mesoscale Discussion 1579
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0836 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 240136Z - 240300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
   FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED BY LATE
   EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
   POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE SHORT TERM.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0130Z...TWO SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
   BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ONGOING...ONE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NERN KS
   SOUTHEAST OF CONCORDIA...AND THE OTHER A NEARLY STATIONARY HP
   SUPERCELL IN ERN NEB NORTH OF OMAHA. 00Z OAX AND TOP SOUNDINGS SHOW
   MODERATE-TO-STRONG BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR/HELICITY FOR
   SUPERCELLS...AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST
   THE SHORT TERM...INCLUDING A CONTINUED RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.
   STORM INTENSITY IS LIKELY PEAKING NOW...WITH DIURNAL
   COOLING/STABILIZATION NOW UNDERWAY...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY
   INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...WHICH IS ALREADY
   UNDERWAY ACROSS ERN NEB IN THE VICINITY OF THE HP SUPERCELL. UPSCALE
   GROWTH INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE AS
   COLD POOLS MERGE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SOME
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO LATE EVENING. 

   THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH...THOUGH
   THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY TOO ISOLATED FOR
   WATCH ISSUANCE...AND THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY REMAIN TOO
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED WITH ANY UPSCALE-GROWING CLUSTERS LATER THIS
   EVENING.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 08/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39439766 40079760 41219732 41779670 42229580 42029507
               41339448 39959466 39309486 39109550 39069624 39139668
               39159725 39229759 39439766 

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Page last modified: August 24, 2016
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