Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1581
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1581 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 242023Z - 242200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
   IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SUPER-RAPID SCAN 1-MINUTE SATELLITE DATA REVEAL A
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEASTERN MO
   WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KS WHERE IT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A SFC
   TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE WARM-SECTOR CU FIELD TO THE
   SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS
   AFTERNOON...AIDED BY ONGOING HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A SUBTLE
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. 

   WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED/CLEARED...SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
   90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE SUPPORTING
   MODERATE BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE
   THE KINEMATIC PROFILE IS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   FLOW...STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AS WELL AS AMPLE VENTING OF
   THESE UPDRAFTS. IN TURN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CORES...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT AS WELL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   ..PICCA/WEISS.. 08/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37029822 37239560 37519295 39069288 39549368 39359746
               38809838 37559907 37229899 37079859 37029822 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 24, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities