MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN OK.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 042155Z - 050000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING INVOF DRYLINE OVER NWRN OK MAY INTENSIFY
   WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO FAVORABLE PARAMETER
   SPACE OVER NRN OK IN BETWEEN WWS 490-491...WHILE ACTIVITY NEAR KS
   BORDER MOVES INTO SRN PORTIONS WW 491.  WW EXTENSION...OR LESS
   LIKELY A NEW WW...MAY BE REQUIRED FOR N-CENTRAL OK.

   DISCUSSION...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF DEEP
   CONVECTIVE TOWERS MOVING OFF DRYLINE...ACROSS PORTIONS
   DEWEY/MAJOR/WOODS COUNTIES AND NNEWD OVER KS.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF
   THIS ACTIVITY IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY
   SUSTAINED AND RELATIVELY DISCRETE TSTMS.  NARROW/100-NM-WIDE
   CORRIDOR OF 60S F SFC DEW POINTS...ASSOCIATED 1.25-1.5-INCH PW AND
   14-15 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS WILL PERSIST AMIDST LATE-AFTN SFC
   HEATING TO SUPPORT MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-3-KM CAPE 100-200
   J/KG.  VWP DATA AND MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS EACH SUGGEST 40-50-KT
   WSWLY EFFECTIVE-SHEAR VECTORS -- ORIENTED WITH GREATER COMPONENT
   ACROSS THAN PARALLEL TO DRYLINE.  THIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR BKN
   LINEAR TO DISCRETE MODES.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS EACH ARE
   POSSIBLE.  EVENING LLJ ENHANCEMENT TO 2-3-KM AGL WINDS SHOULD
   ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS IN SUPPORT OF TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY
   SUSTAINED/DISCRETE SUPERCELL STILL ACTIVE...UNTIL GRADUAL SFC
   DIABATIC COOLING ADVERSELY INCREASES STATIC STABILITY IN NEAR-SFC
   LAYER LATE THIS EVENING.

   ..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 10/04/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35829896 37049827 37029639 36159660 36169682 36249680
               36249713 36169714 36159768 35729766 35729829 35559831
               35569863 35439862 35479901 35829896