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Mesoscale Discussion 1801 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017
Areas affected...Far east-central AL...West-central GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 201746Z - 201945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and/or a brief tornado is possible
over the next hour or two across far east-central AL and
west-central GA. Watch not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Current surface analysis suggests a weak surface low
exists across far east-central AL (approximately 25 mi northwest of
LGC) with a warm front extending eastward/east-northeastward across
northern GA. Storms within close proximity to this low and warm
front (i.e Troup and Coweta) have shown some low-level rotation over
the past 15-30 minutes, likely a result of the slightly better
mesoscale forcing for ascent and storm interactions with the warm
front. As such, isolated instances of wind damage and a brief
tornado are possible. However, weak instability should moderate
updraft strength and limit persistence, tempering the overall severe
potential. Current expectation is for the limited severe threat to
preclude the need for a watch, but convective trends will be
monitored closely.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 12/20/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...
LAT...LON 32618601 33038561 33438476 33498346 33128329 32828378
32358542 32428596 32618601
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