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Mesoscale Discussion 37
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0037
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

   Areas affected...Far East Texas...Northwest
   Louisiana...Arkansas...Southern Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...

   Valid 220716Z - 220915Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will likely
   continue for a few more hours across tornado watch 2. The severe
   threat may gradually lessen as the 10Z watch expiration approaches.
   For that reason, additional weather watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows two loosely organized
   convective lines. The first line of storms is located from east
   Texas north northeastward into central Arkansas. The second line is
   located along a cold front extending southwestward from western
   Arkansas into northeast Texas. The first line is located out across
   the warm sector where surface dewpoints are generally in the lower
   60s F. In spite of the relatively moist airmass ahead of the front,
   instability is weak across the entire watch area. The convection is
   being supported by large-scale ascent ahead of an upper-level trough
   over the southern Plains. Also, a 40 to 60 kt low-level jet is
   located from the Arklatex north northeastward into the mid
   Mississippi Valley which is providing enhanced lift to support
   continued convective development over the next few hours. The
   low-level jet along with strong southwest mid-level flow evident on
   regional WSR-88D VWPs is resulting in 50 to 60 kt of 0-6 km shear.
   The will help maintain a wind-damage threat with the faster moving
   line segments. The strong low-level shear will make a brief tornado
   or two possible with any supercell that develop. As the convection
   moves to the edge of the watch, decreasing instability, lowered
   theta-e and increasing convective inhibition will reduce the severe

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 01/22/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30749400 31189280 32209191 33879165 35539123 36619107
               37069118 37279138 37329163 37309184 37139214 36879231
               35989261 35629277 34489310 32819368 31719413 30749400 

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