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Mesoscale Discussion 98
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0098
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

   Areas affected...Texas coastal plain

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 250600Z - 250730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Some thunderstorm activity developing across the region
   could become fairly strong through the 2-4 AM CST time frame. 
   Overall, though, the severe weather potential seems limited, and a
   watch is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway near and
   ahead of the weak surface front advancing into the Texas coastal
   plain.  This is being aided by forcing for ascent associated with
   another low-amplitude short wave impulse crossing the lower Rio
   Grande Valley, within the subtropical westerlies.  Although
   southerly low-level flow across the region is generally modest, with
   speeds up to 30 kt generally confined to upper Texas coastal areas,
   deep layer shear is strong.  With layers of modestly steep lower/mid
   tropospheric lapse rates contributing to CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg
   (for moist boundary layer parcels with dew points in the upper 60s
   to near 70), some of these storms could be accompanied by some risk
   for severe hail into the 07-09Z time frame.  Eventually, upscale
   convective growth is possible along and just ahead of the front.  As
   this occurs, the risk for hail probably will decrease, but a few
   locally strong wind gusts may accompany developing outflow.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 02/25/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29389792 29819689 30329548 30699453 30749369 29739370
               29199540 28219685 28179780 29389792 

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